Thursday, November 19, 2015

College Football Week 12 Picks/Predictions

After another exciting week of college football, we head into week 12 where there is now no margin of error for any losses if you want to make the college football playoff committee.  Here are my week 12 picks/predictions.

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#15 LSU (7-2) at #22 Ole Miss (7-3) (3:30 PM ET, on CBS, in Oxford, Mississippi) UPSET

My pick: #22 Ole Miss defeats #15 LSU 37-30

What to watch for: Ole Miss' offense.  Ole Miss has one of the best offenses in the SEC, they have a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball, and I think that since LSU is coming off of getting pounded two weeks in a row, and since Ole Miss is at home.  I see Ole Miss being able to score enough in this game to pull out the victory at home over #15 LSU.

My thoughts/reasons: The saying is you can't let one loss become two, but for LSU, I think they'll let one loss become three.  I think that any college football team would be beat down physically if you're coming off of playing Alabama, and Arkansas back-to-back, and I think that will be the case with LSU.  I think the Tigers will still put up a good fight, but I think they'll fall short vs #22 Ole Miss on the road.
Photo credit: Justin Ford - USA Today Sports
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#20 Northwestern (8-2) at #25 Wisconsin (8-2) (3:30 PM ET, BTN/BTN2, Madison, Wisconsin) UPSET

My pick: #25 Wisconsin defeats #20 Northwestern 31-14                                                        

What to watch for: Wisconsin's defense.  Wisconsin's defense has played pretty well all season long, they have the talent and the coaching to be even better than they've been.  In this game, I see the Badgers' defense playing great and causing problems for Northwestern's offense.  Plus, being at home for this game doesn't hurt either for Wisconsin.  So in the end, I think Wisconsin pulls off this victory with huge help from their defense's play.

My thoughts/reasons: Northwestern has surprised people with the way they've played this season, but I think in this game vs Wisconsin they'll struggle to get back to what they did vs Stanford, and in games like their one vs Minnesota.  I see the Badgers getting a big win over a top-20 team in Northwestern.

Photo credit: Patrick Smith - Getty Images
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#9 Michigan State (9-1) at #3 Ohio State (10-0) (3:30 PM ET, on ABC, in Columbus, Ohio)

My pick: #3 Ohio State defeats #9 Michigan State 31-24                                               

What to watch for: Ohio State's running game.  Ohio State's running game has been pretty good all season, they have one of the best running backs in college football in Ezekiel Elliott, and they also have QB J.T. Barrett who runs the ball pretty well also, along with other guys that can run the ball pretty effectively.  Running the ball will be important in this game for the Buckeyes, because in my opinion, I think that running the ball will be their best chance to win this game, especially because there's a high chance of rain.  So in the end, I see Ohio State remaining undefeated and keeping their championship hopes alive for at least one more week.

My thoughts/reasons: This game was one of the hardest games for me to pick, because both teams are very talented, but also because none of these teams have played very tough competition, and the one game that one of these teams did play tough competition, they won on the last play of the game on a fumbled punt returned back for a touchdown.  I see Ohio State getting the win though, because they've looked like the more complete team, and also because they're the home team in this game.

Photo credit: Mike Granse - USA Today Sports
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#10 Baylor (8-1) at #6 Oklahoma State (10-0) (7:30 PM ET, on FOX, in Stillwater, Oklahoma)

My pick: #6 Oklahoma State defeats #10 Baylor 41-30                                                           

What to watch for: Turnovers.  Oklahoma State's defense has forced 10 turnovers in their past four games, so they're pretty good at forcing turnovers.  The Cowboys are gonna face a Baylor team who is either gonna start a young QB in Jarrett Stidham who is very talented, but he's only started two games in his whole collegiate career, who's suffering through an unfortunate back injury and may or may not play, or they'll start third string QB Chris Johnson who hasn't played this season.  So if Oklahoma State forced Trevone Boykin who is a senior QB to get uncomfortable and turn it over four times, I'm sure they can make an inexperienced QB uncomfortable and force him to turn it over at least a couple of times.  Baylor as a team isn't that bad about turning the ball over, but I think the circumstances play into Oklahoma State's hands, and I think Oklahoma State will capitalize on those circumstances.

My thoughts/reasons: Baylor is a very talented team, but I think that it'll be tough for them to respond the way they need to in order to get a victory over Oklahoma State on Saturday.  I think that Oklahoma State will play better than they did on the road vs Iowa State last Saturday, and I see Baylor struggling to get back on track like they were before they fell to Oklahoma this past Saturday.  So in the end, I see Oklahoma State getting another victory to improve to 11-0 on the season to keep their championship hopes alive.

Photo credit: Steven Branscombe - USA Today Sports
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#18 TCU (9-1) at #7 Oklahoma (9-1) (8:00 PM ET, on ABC, in Norman, Oklahoma)                 

My pick: #7 Oklahoma defeats #18 TCU 31-23                                                                        

What to watch for: Oklahoma's defense.  Oklahoma's defense is one of the best, if not the best defense in the BIG-12.  They're going up against a beat up TCU offense, who will miss WR Josh Doctson from a wrist injury.  But their star QB Trevone Boykin is likely to play for the Horned Frogs in this game, but even with those injuries, TCU's offense is still very talented, and they're still a really good.  So Oklahoma's defense will have to show up and play well if they want to limit TCU's offense, and I think they will, en route to another big victory, this time at home.

My thoughts/reasons: I probably predict this game to be closer than most people do, because I think TCU will come out motivated, and ready to play.  But I think the Sooners will be too much for them in the end, and I think Oklahoma will survive for at least one more week heading into the last week of the regular season.                                                                                                                       

Photo credit: Joe Camporeale - USA Today Sports 
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My Sneaky Good Game Of The Week
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#24 USC (7-3) at #23 Oregon (7-3) (3:30 PM ET, on ESPN, in Eugene, Oregon) UPSET       

My pick: #24 USC defeats #23 Oregon 38-34                                                                    

What to watch for: USC's passing game.  USC has a very good passing game, with a senior QB in Cody Kessler, and a lot of weapons to utilize.  They face an Oregon defense who has struggled at times this season, so USC should try to pounce on their ability to pass the ball effectively in this game, not that they shouldn't try to run the ball at times, but since they're a more pass first offense, they should probably try to use that to their advantage.  I think that the Trojans will be able to pass the ball effectively in the end, and I think they'll get the win over a top-25 ranked opponent in Oregon.

My thoughts/reasons: For the second straight week, Oregon is in my "Sneaky Good Game Of The Week".  This game may not be too far under-the-radar, but considering that there is six total ranked-vs-ranked matchups this week, counting this one.  I think that this is one of the least, if not the least talked about matchup out of those six.  But, this one is quietly pretty important, because not only are both of these teams ranked, but technically, both of these teams PAC-12 championship hopes are still alive.  In terms of the game, Oregon is coming off of a tough, hard-fought victory over Stanford on the road.  While USC is coming off of a 27-24 victory over Colorado on the road on this past Friday night.  So both teams are coming off of victories, but I think that Oregon may play a little more sloppy than the Trojans because they faced a tough, physical Stanford team, and also USC has that extra day off if that makes any difference.  I see USC getting the victory over the Ducks to improve their winning streak to five games, and keep their PAC-12 South hopes alive.

Photo credit: David Zalubowski - AP
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These are just some of many college football games that should be exciting in this week of college football.  Enjoy week 12 of the college football season!

Here are some other games that you should look out for:
#17 North Carolina (9-1) at Virginia Tech (5-5)
Purdue (2-8) at #5 Iowa (10-0)
#12 Michigan (8-2) at Penn State (7-3)
UCLA (7-3) at #13 Utah (8-2)
Boston College (3-7) vs #4 Notre Dame (9-1)*
California (6-4) at #11 Stanford (8-2)
Mississippi State (7-3) at Arkansas (6-4)

(Boston College vs #4 Notre Dame will be played in Fenway Park)                                                  

You can follow me on twitter: @Footballfile

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